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In its 4th quarter report of 2006, the real estate information site estimates the home value trends for the U.S. and 75 metropolitan areas. According to the data from http://Zillow.com, home values are now declining slightly on a year-over-year basis for the first time in a decade after years of appreciation.

Zillow’s home value data goes back to 1997 and reveals the depreciation of home value rates at 0.48 % year-over-year at the national level. The depreciation in home value every quarter is at 4.77 %. Zillow’s appreciation rate is based on the value of all homes in an area, including those that were sold.

Although there is a fall in the over-all home price growth, areas such as Seattle and Portland are experiencing a surge in home values at good appreciation rates. Besides national home values, the report also presents comprehensive data on local market price growth and decline in 75 metropolitan areas. The Zillow report gives detailed data on home value changes for counties, cities, neighborhoods and ZIP codes in U.S.A.

The top 5 metro areas with the highest price growth, year-over-year, are:

1. Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida, with an appreciation rate of 25.88 %
2. Yuma, Arizona, with an appreciation rate of 25.66 %
3. Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, with an appreciation rate of 21.24 %
4. Flagstaff, Arizona, with an appreciation rate of 19.02 %
5. Ocala, Florida with an appreciation rate of 17.56 %

The 5 metropolitan areas that have the most declining home values, year-over-year, are:

1. Panama City, Florida, with a depreciation rate of 11.84 %
2. San Luis Obispo-Atascadero-Paso Robles, California, with a depreciation rate of 11.35 %
3. Punta Gorda, Florida, with a depreciation rate of 9.23 %
4. Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida, with a depreciation rate of 8.99 %
5. Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, South Carolina, with a depreciation rate of 8.73 %

The Zillow national report also includes the top five most expensive and least expensive metro areas measured by the Zindex home value indicator.

The top 5 metro areas that are most expensive are:

1. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, California at $684,459
2. Salinas, California at $654,503
3. Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc, California at $627,323
4. Honolulu, Hawaii at $626,452
5. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, California at $545,409

The top 5 metro areas that are the least expensive are:

1. Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL at $86,201
2. Peoria-Pekin, Illinois at $91,984
3. Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson, South Carolina at $96,508
4. Tulsa, Oklahoma at $97,186
5. Dayton-Springfield, Ohio at $103,729

Even within these markets, there are hot and cold housing segments of the community. Be sure to seek out the services of a local real estate agent, who can advise you about local market conditions that impact the price of homes, condos and other types of real estate.

On any given day, people can easily find articles and news stories describing an impending bust of the so-called real estate bubble. Despite this gloomy prediction, many experts believe that the recent slowdown in housing will be a gradual and modest readjustment rather than sharp bust or decline. These experts believe that factors that lead to a sharp decline in the real estate market are just not present in the current economic outlook. In fact, a recent study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University noted that “despite the current cool-down, the long-term outlook for housing is bright.”

The rise and fall of the real estate market is subject to the forces of supply and demand, and these factors point to stable and positive growth in the real estate segment.

SUPPLY FACTORS

Limited supply of real estate makes it scarce and usually pushes home prices up. In contrast, an oversupply of real estate tends to put downward pressure on home prices. Despite the current slow down in the real estate market, factors that impact limited supply favor continued growth in the real estate market. Some of these factors include:

1. Builders have readjusted growth plans in regions that have an oversupply of new housing. Over time, any excess inventory is likely to be depleted and equilibrium achieved between supply and demand.

2. The availability of land in certain regions, as well land use regulations and associated compliance costs will continue to restrict the supply of new homes.

DEMAND FACTORS:

Housing located in regions with high demand tend to be more expensive than homes in regions with low demand. Factors that impact the demand for housing suggests a favorable long-term housing outlook. Some of these factors include:

1. No current evidence of significant and across-the-board job losses; forecasts of relatively low unemployment rates.

2. Long-term increased demand for second homes, vacation homes and senior housing by baby boomers.

3. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by the children of baby boomers.

4. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by immigrants.

5. Long-term increased demand for entry-level homes by second-generation Americans.

6. Forecasts that the outflows and inflows of the U.S. population in and out different regions will not significantly impact the overall U.S. real estate housing market.

7. Relative stability in interest rates.

8. Continued stability in long-term home appreciation rates.

9. Overall, rising rate of wealth across all age groups.

SUMMARY

In summary, strong household growth, overall rising incomes and wealth, and a stable economy all bode well for continued long-term growth in the real estate market. While the overall housing outlook is favorable, affordability will continue to be a challenge, as wages, especially in the lower income levels, have not kept up with housing costs.